This is my annual post on why the NBA season should only be 20 games. Maybe as many as 30 games, but fewer regular season games that are more meaningful would attract more TV viewers, increase the popularity, and ultimately benefit the NBA. Today, this blog will not talk about cute kids, my wife, or my mortgage, but it is more something fun for me.
The NFL is popular because most males play football growing up and understand the rules and enjoy watching the games on TV. I know that the same can be said about basketball or baseball, too, but the unspoken popularity of the NFL is the gambling, office pools, fantasy football (which is really gambling in a different form), etc. I have watched the 4th quarter of a Thursday night game between two last place teams in the NFL because of the office pool, but would never do the same thing for an NBA game. I think the other aspect that enhances the gambling opportunities is simply that the games are played once a week on a regular schedule. Also, a team can lose a few games without being eliminated from a championship. but at the same time, there are few enough games that each game does matter. I guess that is where I am going with this, that other major sports could learn a lesson from this strategy as well.
Baseball is talking about adding another two teams to their playoffs because more fans will be excited about post season play and more fans will attend late season games, making more money. This argument is false. Just look at the NBA where more than 50% of the teams make the playoffs but no one really starts watching the games until the semi-finals anyway.
At this point in the season, most of the NBA teams have played 20 games, or 25% of their season is complete. Today, we can look at the standings and already know who will make the playoffs. There may be some jockeying for position between teams to be the #6 or #7 seed, but nothing of any consequence. Really, the remaining 60 games are for owners to make money to pay outrageous player salaries and give more opportunities for fans and dads taking their kids to games to pay $6 for a hot dog and $9 for a beer and $5 for cotton candy, etc. For my family to go to an NBA game, it is between $250 - $350 dollars for tickets, parking, and popcorn and a drink. If we bought any souvenirs, add another $50 minimum. Or, I could buy the kids an iPad for the same price that will last much longer.
Additionally, it doesn't help when only 9 teams win the championship in the last 33 years. It drops to just 7 teams when you take out one-year champions, Philadelphia and Dallas. Only 8 other teams have been to the finals and lost. Put another way, only 23% of teams have ever won a championship, and 50% of the teams in the league have never played for a championship in 33 years. In the same 33-year time period, 15 different teams (46%) have won the Super Bowl and only 5 teams (12%) have never been to the Super Bowl. And one of those, the Jacksonville Jaguars have only been in existence since 1995. From a fan's perspective, on opening day, only 1 in 4 NBA fans believe their team can win the championship while each year in the NFL brings new hope. Some of the NBA fans are just hoping to win one series in the playoffs for it to be a really, really good year before they get beat by the Lakers or the Celtics or the Heat.
I do not watch games on TV because the schedule is so erratic. My favorite team might play five games in one week and two games the next, and not even on the same day of the week. I do not even know which games will be televised. However, with football, I know that my team will be on TV every Sunday. It is either the early or the late game, but Sunday afternoon, I can watch football with my friends and root for my favorite team. Owners could make more money by having fewer games that were more meaningful in deciding the league champion. The TV and radio broadcast rights could be sold for more money if more viewers watched. More viewers would watch and more fans would attend if there were fewer games and the schedule was played at the same time each week. Games could be played on Wednesday and Saturday for 17 weeks, just like the NFL does. The NFL plays a schedule where not every team plays all the other teams and that has not dampened enthusiasm for their sport. Why does the NBA insist on having every team play every other team, both home and away?
So, without further ado, we will write down the eight teams from each division that will begin playing the real NBA season starting in April and ending in June. Check back in April to see how meaningful the remaining 60 games were.
Eastern Conference Western Conference
1. Indiana 19-3. 1. Portland 18-4
2. Miami 16-6 2. San Antonio 17-4
3. Atlanta 11-11 3. Oklahoma 17-4
4. Boston. 10-14 4. Los Angeles Cliippers 15-8
5. Charlotte. 10-12 5. Houston 15-7
6. Washington. 9-11 6. Denver 13-8
7. Detroit 10-13 7. Phoenix 12-9
8. Chicago. 8-12 8. Golden State. 13-10
9. Cleveland. 8-13. 9. Dallas 13-10
Looking at the standings, really, the top four or five teams in the west are really the only ones with a chance. The rest are playing to see who gets beat in the first round of the playoffs that no one will watch anyway And can we just skip the first two rounds of playoffs and get to the Miami vs Indiana battle, please.
May 7th, 2014 update: We got six out of eight teams correct in both the Eastern and Western Conferences. Detroit and Boston felt out of the playoffs in the east, while Denver and Phoenix missed the playoffs by one game. Of the four teams that we did not predict after the 20-game mark in the season, all of lost in the first round of the playoffs except one -- because Brooklyn and Toronto played each other and one of them had to advance.
An interesting note, of the eight teams remaining, only two are among past NBA winners in the past 30 years. Probability says there should be a new champion, but I have faith the NBA will stay on script.
June 6th, 2014 update: The first game of the championship was last night. San Antonio and Miami both survived the last eight teams and for 34 consecutive years, the NBA champion will be the Lakers, the Celtics, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, San Antonio or Miami, no matter who wins this year.
Hey, NBA! If you want more fans, make the league more fair so the other 23 teams have a chance to win a championship and not just the seven big city teams you favor all the time.
